Volume 006: Obligatory end of year predictions and a big thank you.
1. You didn’t miss me until I was gone: CMO is the must have accessory for 2020.
Tl;dr: Coca Cola reinstates CMO position, others will follow.
Two years ago, Coca Cola ditched the CMO. Others swiftly followed. Still more didn’t eliminate the role but downgraded it from the ranks of executive leadership. The implication? Marketing was no longer a strategic function but a tactical subset of operations. Long term brand-building was out, short-term performance was in, and marketing was to be judged solely on the basis of its immediate impact on sales.*
Then, earlier this week Coke announced the CMO is back. Why? Here’s my take: Performance marketing isn’t working as well as they thought, data isn’t delivering gains to the extent they imagined, greater marketing efficiency hasn’t translated into greater effectiveness. And, overall, they’re starting to see signs of a softening in brand strength that will slow the delivery of their strategic goals (which their CEO kind of alluded to already).
Where Coca Cola goes with marketing, the world tends to follow. Any weaknesses they’ve experienced by not treating marketing strategically are almost certainly being seen by others. So, here’s my 2020 prediction: Marketing will become strategic again, performance marketing will be re-framed as a necessary capability rather than the whole point, and there will be a resurgence in long-term brand building as people realize it’s still an essential part of business success. (Thank you JK for sending me the article that fueled this post).
*Self-promotion alert: In 2012, Karl and I correctly predicted the shift to short-termism in our submission for this book. We’re on pages 82 and 83.
2. The books I predict I won’t read this holiday season.
Tl:dr: The one prediction I have almost 100% confidence in.
I almost certainly won’t get around to reading any of these highly recommended books that have started to stack up on my ‘must read’ shelf. So, I thought I’d share them in case you might want to not get around to reading them either:
The Halo Effect & Eight Other Business Delusions.
(I have zero affiliate links or any other commercial relationship with any of these authors. These are just books I’ve bought and probably won’t read.)
3. Zebras not Unicorns.
Tl:dr: Animal metaphors are daft, but if we must, let’s focus on Zebras.
Chasing Unicorns can be destructive: Capital incineration, burnt out founders, unprofitable businesses, underpaid workers, luck masquerading as talent, and some very, very defensive defending of VCs.
Zebra’s on the other hand aren’t blitzscaling their way to oblivion. These businesses focus on serving meaningful niches, they don’t dilute themselves in pursuit of scale and have more of an eye on profits than growth. And while they’re generally nowhere near as big as Unicorns, they’re more sustainable, have a much greater orientation toward positive social impact, and don’t have founders drawn exclusively from Ivy League schools.
I predict we’ll hear more about them next year, alongside alternatives to a VC world that seems increasingly intent on eating itself.
4. Designed with digital, not designed for digital
Tl:dr: Digital brand design finally moves beyond Helvetica in 2020.
For years the refrain “designed for digital” has been used to justify any number of re-brands. All too often, what it really meant was swapping something old for something Helvetica.
The problem was mistaking graphic design craft for branding greatness. It doesn’t matter how well crafted the work is, if it doesn’t make the brand uniquely distinctive then it can’t be great branding.
So, it’s great to see the green shoots of progress beginning to spring up among the weeds of Helvetica. Rather than designing for digital some are designing with digital. Using code and motion to create context, uniqueness and responsiveness.
Long may it continue. I predict that in 2020, we’ll finally ditch the sterile, emotionless brand design epitomized by the Helvetica school and instead shift to a new approach that uses digital to its full extent: responsive, interactive, in motion, and built with code to stand out rather than fit in.
5. Thank you, thank you, thank you. Have a very happy holidays.
Tl:dr: Like a shorter, fatter Schwarzenegger, I’ll be back.
I’d like to wish you a very happy and relaxing holiday and thank everyone who has read and clicked their way through these messages so far.
A special thank you goes to those who’ve reached out to tell me how much they’ve enjoyed these missives. You know who you are.
I very much appreciate your support and look forward to continuing in 2020.