Volume 002: From Cybertruck to Kylie, with a dash of dependency

1. Cybertruck. Kinda bulletproof, not really.

Tl;dr: Tesla shoots for the vast light truck segment.

Last week, Tesla launched the much anticipated Cybertruck. The body can withstand a bullet, the windows not so much. In a US market where 7 in 10 consumer vehicle sales are light trucks, even a small % share represents a huge opportunity for Tesla. Post-launch numbers bear this out. Their claim of 146,000 pre-orders is roughly a 40% lift on Tesla’s total yearly sales. 

So who’s buying Cybertruck? I can’t help feeling we’ll see more of them on Sand Hill Road and in the Hamptons than on a construction site near you. 

But that’s kind of missing the point. Tesla is smart to realize that just making an electrified F150 won’t cut through in a market dominated by just three brands. It’s making a big brand bet that the unique distinctiveness of Cybertruck will create a defensible toehold from which they can grow. I don’t agree with all of Tesla’s recent choices, but I wouldn’t bet against this one even if that truck is seriously damn ugly.

2. Nobody ever got fired for imitating Apple. Maybe they should.

Tl;dr: Success requires brands to stand-out. We’ve been too busy fitting in to notice.

Not so long ago it was nigh on impossible to sell a CEO on a minimal, highly simplified visual approach to their brand. I know, we tried. Today, it’s impossible to get away from. 

It would be easy to blame Apple. Let’s face it: without them, Bauhausian reductionism wouldn’t have become the path of least resistance in the boardroom because design blah blah blah, trillion dollar company etc.

But the problem isn’t Apple; it’s us. We completely missed that what mattered wasn’t minimal simplicity but the bravery of designing differently in a world that didn’t. As a result, Apple became uniquely and enduringly distinctive—quite literally standing alone.

Now, as brands across every category embrace reductivism to the point of sterility, the result isn’t distinctiveness; it’s anonymity. What was once a brave choice has become the face of corporate conservatism and the instantly forgettable status quo—the literal opposite of what made Apple successful.

Like Jony Ive, it’s time we moved on.

Further reading: Byron Sharp on the importance of distinctive assets and Youngme Moon on being different.

3. Discount dependency. Almost suicidally self-destructive.

Tl;dr: Another brand feels the pain from too much digital advertising.

A couple of weeks ago it was Adidas, now it’s Old Navy’s turn. The CFO of GAP admitting their shift to digital advertising has been a trip to price promotion hell rather than the promised land of profit.

Pricing power is one of the primary long-term advantages of brand strength, but you need to continuously build equity to achieve it and nothing drops your pricing floor faster than too much price promotion.

In the rush to digital, a thirst for direct sales led brands like Old Navy and Adidas to pull the price-promotion lever early and often. But, without also investing in their brands, they accidentally became discount dependent, one of the most value-destructive things you can do to any business.

They’re far from alone This is a story that will run and run.

4. Will we ever see another Kylie like her?

Tl;dr: Kylie Jenner strikes big, but can her success be repeated?

With the $600m acquisition of 51% of Kylie Cosmetics by Coty, Kylie is officially the world’s youngest billionaire. As a result, expect another flood of speculative money pouring into asset-light DTC retail any day soon. No doubt much of it to beautiful women selling cosmetics on Instagram, because Kylie blah blah blah, billionaire etc.

However, it strikes me that the unique circumstances surrounding Kylie Jenner seem way more important than the obvious “celebrity influencer becomes billionaire” narrative: Media-savvy, business-minded, and highly connected mother/manager, check. Made-for-TV family creating a distinctive presence in the market, check. An array of older sisters influencing other brands to set market expectations, check.

Keeping up with the Kardashians started when Kylie Jenner was just ten. Building her brand as the family's entrepreneur has been a generational project, and it required an entire clan to deliver. So, while many will try, I’m not sure we’ll see a success quite like Kylie’s again.